The 2025 PGA Championship is shaping up as one of the most anticipated golf events of the year. This year, the tournament returns to Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, promising another dramatic week from May 15 to May 18. Some of the world’s best, led by Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau, are among the top favorites. The odds and analytics from proven computer models are drawing serious attention, especially after their big hits in recent majors.
With the field set and fresh narratives building around favorites and longshots, fans, bettors, and DFS players have plenty to consider. The backdrop of Quail Hollow adds extra intrigue, recalling its memorable 2017 edition when Justin Thomas broke out with his first career major. As the action closes in, all eyes are on how the odds, predictions, and simulation results will play out for the top stars and late surges by lesser-known names.
PGA Championship Returns to Quail Hollow
Quail Hollow last hosted the PGA Championship in 2017, a year that saw Justin Thomas capture his first major on a demanding course known for its length and challenging closing holes. The club, located in Charlotte, has a well-earned reputation for testing every part of a golfer’s game. Players familiar with its layout understand that mistakes late in the round can ruin even the best starts.
The 2025 golf calendar sees the PGA Championship as the second major of the season. After its previous stints hosting major tournaments and the annual Wells Fargo Championship, Quail Hollow is recognized for its fast greens and difficult finish, especially the “Green Mile” stretch from holes 16 to 18. This year, the event is attracting stars eager to claim the Wanamaker Trophy, with local fans expecting another thrilling finish.
Field conditions are a big topic this year. With unpredictable spring weather in North Carolina, there is added emphasis on adaptability and approach play. Players who can control ball flight and show patience on approach shots stand to gain the most. Returning to this venue, veterans with positive histories, like Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, might have an edge over those less familiar with the course.
Several past champions, such as Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy, have successful track records at Quail Hollow, offering a strong storyline of redemption and comeback for 2025. For fans, the blend of course history and major pressure creates the perfect recipe for drama throughout this year’s PGA.
Latest Odds and Betting Favorites
Sportsbooks and betting apps have set Scottie Scheffler as the tournament favorite at +450, reflecting his remarkable consistency and recent victories on the PGA Tour. Rory McIlroy follows closely with +480, while Bryson DeChambeau comes in as a distant third favorite at +1000. These odds are based on recent form, historical performance, and public betting trends.
Notably, Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa are both at 21-1, sharing the seventh-best odds among the field. These numbers highlight lingering questions about their current form but also respect for their ability to contend at majors. Ludvig Aberg and Xander Schauffele also enter with strong odds, priced at +1900, while former major winners like Jon Rahm sit not far behind at +2000.
Several big names are well behind the leaders in the betting odds, including Viktor Hovland (+3400) and Jordan Spieth (+4100). The odds reflect both the strength of the field and recent results. For bettors, these lines inform both outright picks and potential value longshots who have the experience to handle the Quail Hollow test.
The full slate of odds shows a sharp cutoff between favorites and the rest of the field, though historical upsets at the PGA Championship caution against overlooking experienced pros or young talents with strong recent form.
Computer Model Success at Golf Majors
In recent years, the proprietary model developed by DFS pro Mike McClure, now used by SportsLine, has gained a reputation for accurately calling results at golf’s biggest events. Entering 2025, this model had picked the winner or projected leaderboard at 14 majors, including the last four Masters and last year’s PGA Championship and U.S. Open.
The model simulates the tournament 10,000 times to project finishing positions and highlight top value picks. Since the PGA Tour resumed post-pandemic in June 2020, the model claims to be up more than $9,000 on best bets. These consistent results have built a loyal following among fans who use the projections for both fantasy and real-money wagering.
One advantage of the computer model has been its ability to identify trends before they’re widely recognized, such as pinpointing under-the-radar players due for a breakthrough or major contenders who might struggle due to recent injuries or inconsistent stats.
The projection process incorporates recent form, in-course stats, weather forecasts, and course fit. It’s why the model was one of the first to call Xander Schauffele’s major breakthrough and also flagged several memorable longshots in previous championships.
For 2025, its calls are closely watched as fans try to get an edge in DFS and betting markets, particularly with Sims data so heavily influencing odds and pool picks for platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel. See the latest computer model predictions here.
Top Contenders: Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler stands as the clear favorite to win his first major outside Augusta National. Since turning pro in 2018, Scheffler has picked up 19 professional wins, including 14 on the PGA Tour. The Texan is coming off a dominant eight-stroke victory at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and remains the top-ranked golfer in the world heading into Quail Hollow.
Scheffler’s steady play is reflected in his 120 made cuts out of 139 career starts, an indicator of remarkable consistency. His best finish at the PGA Championship came in 2023, when he finished second. In 2024, he placed seventh at The Open Championship and continued to pile up strong finishes at majors, consistently keeping himself in contention.
This year started with a scare after Scheffler suffered a hand injury during a holiday dinner. He returned to play and quickly returned to form, erasing doubts about his health with his most recent victory. His accurate approach play, calm demeanor under pressure, and ability to score late in rounds make him the logical favorite for 2025.
Bettors and experts alike are watching how Scheffler handles the challenge of Quail Hollow’s punishing layout and closes rounds on the infamous “Green Mile.” All eyes are also on his quest to add the PGA title to his growing major résumé.
Rory McIlroy’s Major Momentum
Rory McIlroy enters the 2025 PGA Championship as both a five-time major winner and the newest member of golf’s Grand Slam club. This year he has already picked up three victories, the most of any player on tour so far. McIlroy holds a unique connection to the PGA Championship, as it’s the only major he’s won more than once, but he hasn’t lifted the Wanamaker Trophy in over a decade.
His history at Quail Hollow includes two victories at the Wells Fargo Championship, though his last PGA showing on this course resulted in a 22nd place back in 2017. Despite that, course familiarity and recent form put McIlroy top of mind for fans and analysts looking at likely contenders.
Interestingly, McIlroy hasn’t finished in the top five at the PGA Championship in any of his last ten attempts, an odd statistical drought given his world-class talent. Still, his consistently strong iron play and mental edge, buoyed by a recent surge in wins, give him a real shot to break the pattern this year.
McIlroy’s experience and momentum this season set him apart in the field. His ability to handle tough scoring conditions and strategically plot his way around Quail Hollow are big pluses. If he can convert more putts than in recent campaigns, fans and bookmakers will be watching for him to finally return to the PGA winner’s circle.
Xander Schauffele’s Title Defense Challenge
Xander Schauffele arrives at Quail Hollow as the defending champion. Last year, he broke through for his first major win by edging Bryson DeChambeau in a tense final round, and followed it with another major at the Open Championship at Royal Troon. But 2025 hasn’t gone smoothly; a rib injury forced him to miss two months and he’s posted just one top-10 finish so far.
This season, Schauffele is fighting issues off the tee, ranking outside the top 150 in key metrics like driving accuracy and strokes gained. That’s especially concerning at Quail Hollow, where missed fairways punish even the best.
Schauffele’s putting and scrambling numbers are also down. He’s only 31 years old but already has two major championships, a feat that puts him in rare company on the PGA Tour. Still, his odds stand at 19-1, reflecting both respect for his skill and caution about his current form.
In golf, defending a major title is always tough, and at a demanding venue like Quail Hollow, Schauffele will need his best game to stay near the top of the leaderboard. If he can rediscover his rhythm, he’s capable of surprising doubters again.
Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa Outlook
Justin Thomas won his first major at the 2017 PGA at Quail Hollow, making this return to Charlotte deeply personal. Since then, he’s added a second PGA Championship (2022) but has struggled for week-in, week-out dominance, never winning more than two events in a season since his breakout year. After a recent RBC Heritage playoff win, Thomas hopes to recapture that Charlotte magic for a second time in 2025.
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Thomas is tied at 21-1 with Collin Morikawa, who remains one of the game’s best iron players but has faced his own ups and downs. Morikawa’s consistency in majors – he won the 2020 PGA and Open Championship – keeps him among the top contenders every time he tees it up, even if his putting has been shaky at times.
For both, the story centers on whether their precision and experience can overcome Quail Hollow’s unique demands. Thomas’s knowledge of the course layout and mental confidence from past success make him a sentimental fan pick and a real threat. Morikawa, younger but with an old-school game, has the ball-striking to control the middle rounds if he gets hot with the putter.
These two former major winners aren’t at the top of the odds board but carry high upside – and plenty of motivation to upstage Scheffler and McIlroy on golf’s biggest stage.
Bryson DeChambeau and Other Notable Challengers
Bryson DeChambeau enters with odds at +1000, cementing his status as a top contender after finishing runner-up in last year’s PGA Championship. Known for his booming drives and unconventional approach, DeChambeau’s power game could offer an advantage at Quail Hollow’s long holes – if he can keep the ball in play.
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Behind the top three, the field is packed with past champions and emerging stars. Ludvig Aberg (+1900), Jon Rahm (+2000), and Viktor Hovland (+3400) all possess the ball control and poise to make a run. For others like Jordan Spieth and Brooks Koepka, the question is whether flashes of old form can produce another major-winning week.
Players such as Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, and Tommy Fleetwood, while not listed among outright favorites, offer value for bettors. Each has shown they can play with the leaders in tough conditions and may benefit from the sharper focus a major demands.
This year’s field represents a blend of proven major winners and hungry young talents, setting up possibilities for both expected names and surprise contenders to make headlines.
Surprise Picks and Longshots
While the favorites always dominate the headlines, the 2025 PGA field has a handful of potential longshots worth watching based on recent form and model projections. According to the SportsLine computer model, at least four players listed at longer than 20-1 odds could make a strong charge for the Wanamaker Trophy.
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Names like Sahith Theegala (+7500), Tom Kim (+5500), and Min Woo Lee (+8000) all stand out as players with enough all-around skill and big tournament experience to surprise even the savviest golf fans. Maverick McNealy (+10000) and Akshay Bhatia (+8000) are a bit under the radar but have collected solid results on tour and might perform well under major pressure.
- Tom Kim’s precision play can pay off on tight setups.
- Theegala’s aggressive style can rack up birdies in scoring conditions.
- Min Woo Lee’s recent stretch of success makes him a betting value at long odds.
Bettors know the PGA often produces surprise contenders in the final round. Course fit, nerves, and the ability to capitalize on hot streaks all matter. Don’t be shocked to see at least one of these longshots in the mix late on Sunday.
Course Impact: Quail Hollow’s Demands
Quail Hollow is notorious for its “Green Mile” finish (holes 16 – 18), which routinely produces high-stakes drama and swings on the leaderboard. The long par 4s and a par 3 that plays over water provide little margin for error, especially for players chasing or defending a lead.
The course itself places a premium on both length and accuracy off the tee. Fairways are tight, greens are fast, and spring weather often adds wind and rain into the mix. Approach play tends to make the difference between contenders and those left behind after 36 holes.
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Historical scoring at Quail Hollow shows that conservative strategies can pay off, particularly for players who avoid disaster on the last three holes. Scrambling and putting are crucial, as many of the greens are sloped and run fast during tournament week.
Experience at Quail Hollow helps, so it’s no surprise that returning champions and past Wells Fargo winners are mentioned as potential favorites. Players who can control nerves and strategy during the final stretch are best positioned for major success in 2025.
Projected Leaderboard and Statistical Insights
The SportsLine computer model, which simulates the event 10,000 times, provides one of the most detailed projected leaderboards available for fans and bettors. It currently favors Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau for top finishes, while warning that Xander Schauffele may not repeat last year’s glory.
The model factors in driving accuracy, strokes gained stats, putting ability, and recent injuries. For example, Schauffele’s ranking outside the top 150 in multiple categories signals real trouble at a demanding layout like Quail Hollow. He’s predicted to barely crack the top 10 despite being the defending champion.
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Among international stars and young talents, the model highlights players such as Ludvig Aberg and Tom Kim for potential breakout performances. Unexpected names in the top 10 shouldn’t be ruled out – previous iterations of the simulation have successfully identified dark horses before they caught public notice.
DFS players following the projections closely will notice value in lower-priced entrants with positive course fit and recent surges in form. For betting markets, computer insights may highlight matchups and finishing position bets overlooked by the casual fan.
Expert Strategies for DFS and Sports Betting
Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) lineups for the 2025 PGA Championship require a mix of chalk plays and calculated risks. Top prices go to favorites like Scheffler and McIlroy, but building a winning lineup is typically about finding low-ownership value plays who can make the weekend or surge on moving day.
DFS experts often use computer models to target players with positive strokes gained metrics and avoiding those struggling with injuries or course fit. For example, Xander Schauffele’s recent injury history and poor driving accuracy should inform lineup builds for both DFS and prop bet strategies.
- Betting splits and public money can move odds quickly, so locking in picks earlier in the week may give better odds for certain players.
- Live betting is another option, particularly on platforms allowing for second-round or in-play picks as new course conditions emerge.
In traditional betting, outright winner bets are typically balanced by placing smaller amounts on longshots based on individual player upside and simulation projections. Matchup bets, such as one-on-one player results, are popular for those seeking less variance than picking the outright major winner.
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For the updated PGA Championship picks, check the latest expert opinions from the SportsLine model before making final betting decisions.
What to Watch: Key Storylines This Year
The 2025 PGA Championship promises no shortage of dramatic storylines. Scottie Scheffler seeks his first major outside Augusta, while Rory McIlroy aims to return to PGA glory after a strong start to his season. All eyes are on Xander Schauffele as he battles to defend his title after an injury-plagued year.
Justin Thomas’s return to Quail Hollow, the site of his first major, is sure to stir up memories and expectations. Can he recapture his 2017 form on the same course? Young contenders like Ludvig Aberg, Tom Kim, and Akshay Bhatia are positioned for breakout performances, especially if the favorites stumble.
For fans of betting, DFS, and pure golf drama, the “Green Mile” at Quail Hollow guarantees a suspenseful finish. As always, the world will be watching to see who emerges on Sunday afternoon as the next holder of the Wanamaker Trophy – and which longshot stories unfold throughout the tournament week.
