The 2025 PGA Championship is set to tee off at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, from May 15 to May 18. With a competitive field led by Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler, all eyes will be on this year’s second major as it returns to one of the most respected venues on the PGA Tour. This tournament consistently produces drama, with storylines ranging from defending champions to dark horse picks looking for a breakthrough.
This year’s championship brings together the top names in golf and exciting new faces, making it a highly anticipated event for fans and bettors. The odds, predictions, and best bets will be closely watched as the world’s finest players battle for the Wanamaker Trophy.
Key Storylines Ahead of the 2025 PGA Championship
Several intriguing storylines will define the lead-up to the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. Rory McIlroy is coming off two impressive wins, including his first green jacket at the Masters, and returns to a venue where he has found significant success. Scottie Scheffler shares favorite status after outstanding play the past 12 months. Fans will also be watching Bryson DeChambeau closely, as he looks to convert close calls into major wins.
The depth of the field is noteworthy, with Xander Schauffele, the defending champion, aiming to bounce back after a challenging start to the season. Justin Thomas heads to a place filled with great personal memories and recent momentum. There is also buzz around several international stars and tour regulars showing signs they could challenge the usual favorites for the trophy.
Betting and fantasy interest is strong, as many fans look to capitalize on a field stacked with previous major winners and rising talents. The use of advanced computer models and player data puts a sharper focus than ever on PGA Championship predictions for 2025.
Quail Hollow Club: The Championship Course
Quail Hollow Club, located in Charlotte, North Carolina, is no stranger to hosting marquee golf events. The club last welcomed the PGA Championship in 2017, when Justin Thomas claimed his first major title. Designed by George Cobb and refined by Tom Fazio, Quail Hollow is recognized for its demanding closing stretch known as “The Green Mile.”
Players face tight fairways, undulating greens, and water hazards that come into play late in the round. The course rewards precision driving and distance control into firm greens. Golfers who excel at power and accuracy off the tee consistently perform well here.
The club’s setup typically generates excitement on Sunday, as the final three holes can swing the leaderboard dramatically. Fans can expect plenty of drama, especially if contenders are tightly packed heading into the last stretch. Familiarity with Quail Hollow tends to benefit those who have competed here in majors or past Presidents Cups.
The club’s deep history and challenging setup make it a fitting site for a major championship, rewarding a blend of experience and current form.
Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler: Tournament Favorites
Rory McIlroy comes into the 2025 PGA Championship as a co-favorite after a dominant spring run that included wins at the Players and the Masters. With Quail Hollow as one of his favorite courses, expectations are high for a strong showing. McIlroy has already proved his ability to peak at the right time this season, demonstrating elite ball-striking and poise under pressure.
Scottie Scheffler is tied atop the betting odds, reflecting his remarkable consistency and high finish rate in majors the last two years. The Texas star boasts a game built for majors: accurate driving, elite iron play, and a steady short game. His reliability in big events has made him a favorite among both analysts and fans using DFS platforms.
Bettors will be watching both men closely as they open play in Charlotte. Both have recent success at Quail Hollow, and their statistical profiles suggest they’ll be in the mix on the weekend. The narrative heading into the championship often centers around their head-to-head battles, with both enjoying stretches as world No. 1 over the past year.
Bryson DeChambeau: Close Calls and Current Form
Bryson DeChambeau nearly claimed the PGA Championship win last year, coming up just short as runner-up. This year, he sits among the favorites in the odds and remains one of the most talked-about figures in golf due to his powerful approach and unconventional game.
DeChambeau’s length off the tee continues to give him an edge on longer par 4s and reachable par 5s. He has worked to balance his aggressive play with course management, particularly at venues like Quail Hollow where position is crucial. His ability to grind out pars from tough spots has kept him in contention at big events.
He has shown a steady recovery from past injuries and recent tournaments indicate that his putting is trending in the right direction. If DeChambeau can find a rhythm early, he could be a biggest threat to the top favorites. His presence at the top of the leaderboard would not be a surprise to regular PGA Tour watchers.
The story surrounding DeChambeau is often about his pursuit of major titles and close calls. Fans and analysts will be watching closely to see if he can finally break through at Quail Hollow.
Xander Schauffele: Recent Struggles and Model Surprises
Xander Schauffele entered the 2025 golf season as a two-time major champion but has found the going tougher so far this year. Despite a consistent career and plenty of wins, he’s managed only a single top-10 finish this season, in part due to lingering rib issues.
Putting has been the biggest weakness in Schauffele’s game recently. He’s ranked outside the top 140 in putting categories, impacting his ability to go low or recover after setbacks. Off the tee, he has also fallen among the bottom ranks for strokes gained, making him less of a favorite despite defending his title.
Sports betting models and experts have taken note. Surprisingly, computer simulations project Schauffele may barely crack the top 10 this year at Quail Hollow. For a player with a historic made-cuts streak, this signals how small changes in form can shift outcomes, especially in a major.
Still, his experience and ability to raise his game at big events mean he shouldn’t be overlooked entirely. Schauffele faces pressure to turn things around and prove doubters wrong on a course where he’s tasted success before.
Justin Thomas: Quail Hollow Memories and Momentum
Justin Thomas heads back to the scene of his first major win at Quail Hollow feeling rejuvenated after a challenging couple of years. Thomas captured the 2017 PGA Championship here and then secured a second PGA crown in 2022, making this event something of a special stop in his career.
The two-time major winner recently claimed the RBC Heritage, delivering a confidence boost with his first singles win since 2022. Thomas has shown real promise this year, racking up several top-10 results and more top-3 finishes than in the previous two seasons combined.
His rapport with Quail Hollow is proven: he played a pivotal role for Team USA at the 2022 Presidents Cup held at the club, earning the second-most points of anyone in the event. Combining memories with renewed sharpness, Thomas could make a deep run if he keeps up this momentum.
His combination of historic results at this venue and recent hot streak makes him one of the most compelling picks outside the front-runners. Watch for Thomas to feed off the crowd’s energy as he looks to recapture his best form on familiar ground.
Top Contenders: Morikawa, Rahm, and Aberg
Collin Morikawa, with a PGA Championship already under his belt, enters Quail Hollow as a prime contender. Known for his precise iron play and composure under pressure, Morikawa’s game suits difficult major venues. His consistency in making cuts and notching high finishes in recent years puts him on every expert’s short list.
Jon Rahm, another major winner, is in the mix with 18-1 odds – a reflection of his reputation as one of golf’s most complete players. Rahm has put up strong results in majors the last several seasons and is always a threat when his putter warms up. He brings a blend of power, accuracy, and short game prowess to the table in any major.
Ludvig Aberg is a fresh face among the contenders, showing rapid improvement and often contending on Sunday leaderboards. While less experienced at Quail Hollow, his overall game matches up well with what the course demands. Watch for Aberg to be in the conversation if he can navigate the first two rounds comfortably.
All three bring different strengths, but each could easily find himself in the mix late at the PGA Championship based on current form and proven results at the biggest events.
PGA Championship Odds: Breakdown by Favorites, Contenders, and Longshots
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +500 |
| Rory McIlroy | +500 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +1000 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1200 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1400 |
| Jon Rahm | +1800 |
| Justin Thomas | +2000 |
| Brooks Koepka | +2000 |
Odds for the 2025 PGA Championship clearly highlight the favorites, with McIlroy and Scheffler at the top. These odds reflect recent results, world rankings, and strong history at Quail Hollow. DeChambeau, Schauffele, and Morikawa are also in the mix, all with single-digit to low double-digit odds.
Contenders with odds in the 18-1 to 40-1 range include Rahm, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, and Jordan Spieth. This group features major winners and consistent players who are a strong bet to compete if they find form early in the week.
Longshots, such as Adam Scott, Keegan Bradley, and even Tiger Woods, offer big returns for those who like to take risks. The depth of the field means that a well-timed run could see a lesser-known name on the final leaderboard.
Bettors and DFS players should survey both the favorites and the value options, since recent tournaments have shown majors are wide open – even for those outside the biggest names.
Hidden Gems: Longshot Picks With Upset Potential
Every major has its share of surprise contenders, and the 2025 PGA Championship will be no different. Justin Rose, Will Zalatoris, and Tommy Fleetwood headline a group of players with odds outside 40-1 yet have history of contending in majors or at Quail Hollow specifically.
Some international players, such as Hideki Matsuyama or Joaquin Niemann, also shape up as quality picks for those looking to avoid the consensus. A recent surge in the form of Sahith Theegala and Wyndham Clark positions both as trendy longshot bets in fantasy golf circles.
Statistical models have targeted a few players beyond 20-1 odds for deep runs, though the picks remain exclusive to fans who follow the latest model projections. These hidden gems often make or break betting weeks, and recent trends show majors increasingly reward those with the guts to back them.
Spotting the right underdog could yield one of the best stories of the week, as the PGA Championship is known for testing every player’s resolve through its challenging setup and relentless pressure.
The Computer Model: How It Picks the Favorites and Finds Value
The SportsLine computer model simulates the tournament thousands of times to identify the best value plays and the most likely outcomes at the PGA Championship. This model has nailed 14 major winners in recent years, including winners at the Masters and previous PGAs. It combines advanced statistics such as strokes gained, recent finishes, and course history to create a predictive leaderboard.
For this year’s championship, the model calls for surprises within the top 10, including a soft projection for Xander Schauffele as defending champion and strong upside for Justin Thomas after his recent win and Quail Hollow familiarity. The model is also targeting three players with odds over 20-1 who could make a title run.
Fans and bettors are encouraged to consult these models, as they add another edge to traditional picks based on reputation or headline form. Check out the SportsLine leaderboard and predictions here for more model-based insights.
Recent Trends in Golf Betting and DFS for Majors
The explosion in DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) and legalized sports betting has turned every major into a data-driven event. Platforms like FanDuel, DraftKings, and PrizePicks have seen skyrocketing entries for PGA Championship contests, and more casual fans are tuning in just to follow their bets and fantasy lineups.
Key factors influencing betting this year include recent form, major pedigree, and strokes gained on similar layouts. DFS players focus on high-upside value picks, while risk-averse bettors may spread small wagers across the favorites and mid-tier players.
The use of computer models is now common among both serious and recreational bettors. These models look past headline storylines and focus on cold numbers, identifying breakout candidates or fading struggling stars. DFS contests especially reward unique lineups that combine chalk with high-ceiling longshots.
Staying up-to-date with last-minute injury news and weather trends can create a significant edge in both betting and fantasy formats as the championship unfolds.
Historical Performance: Course Specialists and Trends at Quail Hollow
Quail Hollow’s reputation as a challenging but fair test means certain players always seem to rise at this venue. Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, and Rickie Fowler have all won here or posted multiple high finishes during regular tour stops or previous majors.
The final stretch – holes 16 through 18 known as “The Green Mile” – has been pivotal in shaping past outcomes. Players with strong nerves and clutch putting tend to find more success during crunch time at Quail Hollow.
Course history indicators show that players who hit a high percentage of greens in regulation and avoid big misses off the tee gain a slight edge. The setup rewards those who can manage difficult lies and take advantage when birdie opportunities arise.
Statistically, experienced players and previous major winners have outperformed the field at Quail Hollow, though every major brings a few surprise names into the top 10.
What to Watch: Key Stats and Player Strengths This Week
Several key stats will play a significant role at the 2025 PGA Championship. Strokes gained: off the tee, approach, and putting are crucial for players looking to separate themselves from the field. Quail Hollow also rewards those who scramble well and limit mistakes on the tougher holes.
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Driving accuracy and length are helpful, especially since the rough can be penalizing and Quail Hollow features several long par 4s. The ability to control iron shots onto tricky greens is another important factor for contenders.
Watch for players who start hot with birdies through the early stretch – getting out to a strong start is often a predictor of sustained success at this venue. Those who can maintain composure and convert opportunities on the back nine should climb the leaderboard fast.
Injury Updates and Changing Form: Impact on PGA Championship Odds
Health status is a major consideration, especially when it comes to tracking the favorites and fading those with nagging injuries. Xander Schauffele’s rib trouble earlier in the year has knocked him out of top form. Justin Thomas’s improved health coincides with his current resurgence on tour.
Bettors and fans should be aware that many oddsmakers adjust lines based on pre-tournament injury news and recent performance trends. A late recovery or re-aggravation can drastically shift the betting landscape and fantasy value pools.
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Form swings are another variable. Even players with no injury concerns sometimes fall into or out of contention rapidly, making attention to the last few events critical for making informed picks. Combining injury insights with statistical model projections remains one of the most effective ways to handicap the tournament.
Recent Major Winners and Their Outlook for the PGA Championship
Recent major champions heading to Quail Hollow include not only McIlroy and Thomas but also Jon Rahm and Collin Morikawa. Winners of the last four Masters and several recent U.S. Opens are in the field, offering plenty of proven big-game experience.
These champions arrive with high expectations but also added pressure. Fans and analysts look for any sign of their best form, knowing how important confidence and momentum are in the biggest events.
Performances in earlier 2025 events, especially those on similar courses, are often a reliable guide. Those who have played well in wind, on firm greens, or under pressure will have an edge. Repeat champions are rare, but recent major success often spurs another run at the next big trophy.
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2025 PGA Championship Schedule: Key Dates and Tee Times
The official schedule for the 2025 PGA Championship spans four days, beginning Thursday, May 15, and concluding Sunday, May 18. Practice rounds take place during the earlier part of the week, giving players a chance to adjust to Quail Hollow’s demanding conditions.
Pairings and tee times are released closer to opening day and are typically updated after the first two rounds, so fans should keep an eye on official tournament channels for the latest information. The weekend rounds generally see the leaders tee off in the final groups just after lunchtime, maximizing afternoon drama for fans both on site and watching live.
Projected Leaderboard: Data-Driven Predictions for the Final Round
Sports betting models and expert projections have McIlroy and Scheffler at or near the top of the projected leaderboard as the final round approaches. Computer models have also identified multiple players with odds longer than 20-1 making a push into the top five – potentially shaking up traditional expectations.
Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa project to round out the top tier, with players like Viktor Hovland, Bryson DeChambeau, and Ludvig Aberg pushing closely behind. Surprise names often rise late, especially if weather conditions or nerves play a bigger role than expected.
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Fans tracking live stats can expect shifting odds and drama until the final putt, especially during the last three holes of Quail Hollow’s challenging closing stretch.
FanDuel, DraftKings, and PrizePicks: Best Bets and Prop Markets
The 2025 PGA Championship is a major event for sports betting and daily fantasy platforms. FanDuel, DraftKings, and PrizePicks offer a variety of markets, from outright winners and top-10 finishes to round-by-round props and DFS contests with massive payouts.
Bettors looking for value often combine favorites with longshots in parlays, or chase high-variance plays like hole-in-one or low round props. DFS strategies focus on roster construction and picking low-ownership gems capable of spiking on a major championship stage.
The integration of live stats and quick scoring updates allows fans to adjust bets on the fly, making in-play wagering increasingly popular for golf’s biggest events.
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PGA Championship Trends: What History Says About Picking Winners
Historical trends at the PGA Championship favor players who have shown recent form and have a track record of competing at majors. Experience at Quail Hollow or similar venues is often a useful predictor, as is previous high finishes in majors or big PGA Tour events.
Many past champions had posted solid results in the months leading up to their victory, emphasizing form and momentum. Another trend: few survive the final day without at least one scary moment, so a steady temperament and short game are essential traits in the winner.
Looking at trends in age, country, and player style can sometimes give DFS and betting enthusiasts an extra edge. The PGA’s history is filled with first-time major winners, underscoring the open nature of this tournament.
Follow the Action: Where to Watch and How to Track Scores
Golf fans have options to follow every shot of the PGA Championship, with television coverage on major sports networks and live streams available online. Official tournament sites, PGA Tour apps, and real-time betting dashboards give fans up-to-the-minute scores, leaderboards, and player stats.
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For those building fantasy lineups or making live bets, in-round data and player tracking become crucial tools. Social media channels provide video highlights, interviews, and behind-the-scenes access to all the action at Quail Hollow.
Apps also allow fans to receive push notifications, updates on favorites, and key leaderboard moves – ensuring nobody misses the pivotal moments during tournament week.
