The NBA Draft Lottery has always carried an air of drama that makes it one of basketball’s most unpredictable nights. The 2025 lottery, held in May, brings even more intensity as teams like the Philadelphia 76ers, Charlotte Hornets, and San Antonio Spurs hope fortune lands them the No. 1 pick and the right to draft top prospect Cooper Flagg. The randomness of the lottery, compared against a backdrop of decades-long luck and heartbreak for franchises, shapes NBA destinies with every drawn ball.
Lottery night is when draft odds and team histories combine to decide where the next young superstar will land. With 40 years of archived results, some patterns and outliers have emerged. We break down which teams have historically shined when the ping pong balls start bouncing – and those that never seem to catch a break.
How the NBA Draft Lottery Works
The NBA Draft Lottery determines the order for the first 14 picks in the draft. These picks go to teams that did not make the playoffs, giving those with the worst regular season records the highest chances to select early. But no team can hold over a 14% shot at the top pick, no matter how poor their record. Teams are assigned a set of numbered combinations in a lottery machine, and draw results fix the draft order at the top of the board.
Each year, the NBA tweaks its odds system to discourage teams from deliberately losing games, known as “tanking.” Now, the three worst teams share equal odds for the No. 1 pick. Lottery night is the moment when all the planning and losing can fly out the window because luck alone decides how things fall.
Once the draw is made for the first four picks, the remaining teams fill into the board by reverse order of their regular season record. This mix of performance-based seeding and pure chance creates drama that keeps fans, general managers, and owners glued to the results.
Draft picks often carry other franchises’ hopes too, as picks get traded with protections attached. That means lottery results also impact teams who own conditional picks thanks to past deals. It creates another layer of pressure and surprise on the big night.
2025 Draft Lottery Odds for Cooper Flagg
Cooper Flagg is the consensus top-ranked prospect for the 2025 NBA Draft, making the draft lottery all the more tense. The Jazz, Hornets, and Wizards finished among the league’s worst teams, each securing a 14% shot at the first pick and the chance to select Flagg. The Spurs, picking from the eighth slot, have just a 6% shot, but history proves anything can happen.
Philadelphia sits at No. 5, with a 64% chance to keep its pick. If it falls two spots, their first-rounder transfers to Oklahoma City due to a past trade. Charlotte is locked into a three-way tie for best odds, while the Spurs get two chances – to jump from the eighth slot or from No. 14, originally from Atlanta.
At the other end, Dallas is sitting in the No. 11 slot with only a 1.8% shot after an unlucky year, and the Sacramento Kings are hoping the balls fall just right – their pick goes to Atlanta unless it lands in the top 12. These small odds might seem bleak, but history has shown even the unlikeliest jump can upend the draft landscape.
No team is guaranteed success by lottery odds. The actual drawing can – and often does – produce surprises, leading to ascendant teams taking lottery gold, and others left searching for answers as the picks fall away.
Teams with the Luckiest Lottery Records
Some NBA franchises have gone far beyond the odds when it comes to lottery success. Philadelphia 76ers, Charlotte Hornets, and San Antonio Spurs stand out in historical data for raising their position through lottery magic. These teams have gained significantly more picks than others through pure luck, providing chances to draft franchise-changing stars.
Philadelphia has easily been the luckiest, with a total net gain of 24 slots since the lottery began in 1985. The Hornets have the next best record at +13 slots, while the Spurs have racked up nine. These numbers reflect how many draft positions they’ve gained by moving up on lottery night compared to just picking in order of their regular season record.
Moving up brings more than better players. Sometimes, just one big jump can redefine a team. The Spurs’ luck, for example, delivered them franchise icons even when their regular season play wouldn’t have earned them a top pick in a purely sequential draw.
While good luck doesn’t always build champions overnight, franchises with a history of frequent lottery jumps are often best positioned to land stars when the next big thing – like Cooper Flagg – enters the league.
Philadelphia 76ers: Historical Lottery Kings
The Philadelphia 76ers have rewritten the rules of NBA Draft Lottery fortune. Over 40 years, no team has matched their net gain of 24 slots. On top of that, they’ve moved up in the lottery eight times and moved down only once – a ratio that sets them apart from every other current lottery team.
For the 2025 draft, Philadelphia enters the lottery in the fifth spot. Thanks to prior trades, they hold a crucial stake: if the pick falls outside the top six, Oklahoma City claims it. That amplifies the stakes and keeps Sixers fans glued to every number that comes out of the machine.
Philadelphia’s history suggests the odds may turn in their favor again. They have the league’s highest average improvement per lottery appearance among this year’s contenders – a 1.26 slot rise. It’s a number built on decades of drawing lucky combinations and making the most of the results.
The 76ers’ lottery luck isn’t just about raw numbers. It’s helped build strong rosters, sustain rebuilding phases, and even shift the league’s balance at times. For a franchise that once embraced “The Process,” the lottery has reliably played a pivotal role.
Charlotte Hornets: Quietly Fortunate Despite Results
With 13 net slots gained, the Charlotte Hornets are one of the lottery’s quiet winners, even if it hasn’t always translated into NBA success. Their luck with the balls seldom draws the spotlight, but the stats show a positive – and persistent – shift in their favor on lottery night.
For 2025, Charlotte sits in the third slot, bundled in the league’s three-team tie for top odds at No. 1. While the Hornets have repeatedly landed higher picks than their record would suggest, sustained postseason success has remained elusive. Still, their history promises hope on a night when hope is all that matters.
Even when moving up, Charlotte hasn’t grabbed the superstar that’s elevated the franchise long-term. Their lottery luck stands as a reminder that gaining a pick isn’t everything; drafting the right player is just as important. But if fortune strikes again, the Hornets could finally secure the future star they’ve missed for decades.
San Antonio Spurs: Maximizing Lottery Wins
The San Antonio Spurs are the poster team for turning lottery luck into franchise cornerstones. Across eight lottery appearances, they’ve gained nine slots – an average jump of 1.125 per draw. More striking is that the Spurs never improved by more than three slots at once, but always seemed to get just enough movement to seize a future superstar.
San Antonio never had the league’s worst record in the years they won the lottery. Yet famously, victories in the lottery brought them David Robinson, Tim Duncan, and most recently, Victor Wembanyama. Each of those picks reshaped not just the Spurs, but the NBA as a whole.
In 2025, the Spurs have two shots: the eighth and fourteenth slots, the latter by way of Atlanta. Even their low odds don’t rule them out – their history says small jumps can deliver big rewards. Their strategic use of each lottery boost underscores how a bit of luck, combined with smart decision-making, builds a dynasty.
Don’t count them out just because their odds are slimmer now. The Spurs routinely make the most of whatever position luck hands them.
Teams with the Unluckiest Lottery Streaks
The NBA Draft Lottery isn’t fair to everyone. Some teams have endured year after year of poor results, and for every big jump there’s a franchise that just can’t catch a break. The Dallas Mavericks, Sacramento Kings, and Washington Wizards stand out as those with the toughest lottery luck in recent decades.
Unlike the perennial climbers, these teams have seen a net loss of draft positions and missed out on franchise-altering picks. The numbers are stark: Dallas has never moved up at all, Sacramento has dropped more than almost anyone, and Washington has actually lost ground over time.
For these teams, the lottery often brings disappointment – leaving fans to hope that some year, the odds will flip and finally break decades of bad runs. Until then, their legacy is written in tough luck.
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Dallas Mavericks: Perennial Lottery Misfortune
The Dallas Mavericks are the textbook example of bad lottery luck. In every lottery the team has entered, they have never moved up – not a single time. With their 2025 odds sitting at just 1.8% for the No. 1 pick, it’s easy to see why Mavericks fans brace for disappointment when the drawing starts.
This year, Dallas enters the lottery in the 11th slot, giving them only a slim chance for Cooper Flagg. History suggests they are likely to stay put. The team’s inability to catch a break has kept them from leveraging the lottery to fast-track any rebuild or find a star.
While small odds still mean a chance, the Mavs’ persistent lottery drought looms large. Each year the team hopes to break the streak, but the numbers have not budged. Consistent bad luck has become a defining part of the franchise’s draft story.
Sacramento Kings: Repeated Lottery Setbacks
The Sacramento Kings are another franchise haunted by the lottery. They currently slot in at No. 13 for 2025, but if their pick falls out of the top 12, it goes to Atlanta due to a previous trade. Their odds for keeping the pick already sit at a meager 3.8%.
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No team besides Minnesota has moved down more in the lottery than Sacramento. Eleven times the Kings have dropped from their initial position, compared to just three times moving up. This record has impeded their ability to land transformative talent through the draft.
For Kings fans, lottery night often brings more anxiety than excitement. While the franchise has made a handful of positive jumps, the trend over the years has meant missed opportunities when it comes to getting the best young players. It’s a tough cycle to break, especially with the odds stacked against them year after year.
Washington Wizards: Consistently Down on Draft Night
The Washington Wizards have the unenviable distinction of being the unluckiest non-playoff team in the 2025 lottery. They enter with the most net draft slots lost over time – seven down since the system started. This poor track record means even when fortune seemed to smile on Washington, the results often disappointed.
The Wizards have moved up three times, but those picks – Kwame Brown, John Wall, and Otto Porter – didn’t deliver the franchise boost the team hoped for. They’ve also suffered nine moves down in the lottery, only adding to the frustration for fans still chasing postseason hope.
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Luck is clearly only part of the story. But for the Wizards, even when the odds shift in their favor, their draft history has left more questions than answers. Entering 2025, they hope the lottery shines brighter than it has so many times before.
Notable Surprises and Biggest Lottery Jumps
History proves the NBA Draft Lottery produces true surprises. The most striking example came in 2024, when the Atlanta Hawks – who had lost net draft slots throughout their lottery past – jumped a huge nine places to win the No. 1 pick. It marked the third-biggest jump since the start of the lottery system.
This historic leap reminds fans that no matter what the numbers say, all it takes is one set of drawn balls for a franchise to change its fate overnight. Teams with almost no chance can walk away with the draft’s top prize, rewriting years of bad breaks with one lucky bounce.
These jumps fuel hope for every underdog. While they’re rare, they showcase why the lottery remains so captivating: it brings both heartbreak and instant euphoria to teams – and their fans – all across the league.
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What History Says About Winning the No. 1 Pick
Forty years of draft lotteries show a mix of expected results and fantastic upsets. While some teams with the worst records do land the No. 1 pick, often just as many jump from deeper down the board to the coveted spot. Probability often prevails, but history makes clear that every slot in the lottery can win.
Statistically, the three teams with the league’s worst records each have a 14% shot, but lower-seeded teams have won often enough to keep everyone guessing. In 2024, Atlanta became a case study in how historical patterns can break apart with just one drawing.
Success in the lottery is no guarantee of NBA greatness. Past No. 1 picks have varied wildly in their impact, and teams who moved up often still faced tough roads to rebuild. Still, being in contention keeps hope alive for franchises seeking a transformative player.
Teams with the Best and Worst Average Lottery Changes
Some teams simply outperform the odds. Philadelphia leads among 2025 lottery participants, averaging a jump of almost 1.3 positions each time they appear. The Spurs sit just behind, while Charlotte’s smaller but significant positive trend puts them high on the list too.
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Meanwhile, unlucky franchises like the Kings and Mavericks average downward or neutral moves, further compounding the challenge of building competitive rosters exclusively through the draft.
Consistently moving up lets teams invest in high-value prospects, but falling down year after year can force franchises into a cycle of missed opportunity. For rebuilding teams, each extra slot matters, making these averages worth more than just trivia – they reflect the core realities shaping the league each season.
The Impact of Lottery Luck on NBA Franchise Success
The ebb and flow of lottery luck has far-reaching effects on NBA franchises. Teams that catch lucky breaks and use them wisely can rapidly accelerate rebuilds and reshape the league’s competitive landscape almost overnight. The best teams combine these fortunate draws with smart drafting and free agency planning.
Teams like the Spurs prove how moving up, even a little, can set off decades of success if paired with good scouting. Conversely, franchises saddled with bad luck – like Dallas – find themselves struggling to escape the lottery cycle, facing longer timelines for relevance after years of missed opportunities.
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The experience of teams like Charlotte shows luck is just a starting point. Turning promising ping pong balls into wins takes the right picks and team development. The lottery sets the table, but organizations need vision and patience to capitalize on a lucky moment.
For smaller markets, one lucky night can change everything. A single pick can boost revenue, spark fan interest, and attract talent, creating momentum that’s hard to manufacture through other means.
Which Team Could Land Cooper Flagg?
All eyes remain on Philadelphia, Charlotte, and San Antonio – the three teams whose lottery histories set them apart as potential winners. Philadelphia stands as the overwhelming statistical favorite among lucky franchises, while Charlotte’s persistent gains give them a genuine shot. The Spurs, with two swings at the odds this year, remain a wild card – never to be counted out when a game-changer is up for grabs.
The draft lottery shows that no team is ever truly out of the race until the last envelope is revealed. For Cooper Flagg, landing in Philadelphia would reinforce the Sixers’ uncanny lottery legacy. A Charlotte or San Antonio move could set the trajectory for a decade or more of new competition at the top of the league.
Fans and franchises won’t know until the ping pong balls have spoken. Luck will, once again, play the biggest part in where the NBA’s brightest future lands next.
