The second round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs is already full of surprises. On Friday, May 9, all eyes are on the Indiana Pacers hosting the Cleveland Cavaliers, and the Oklahoma City Thunder heading back to Denver for Game 3 against the Nuggets. Basketball fans and sports bettors have some intriguing player props and odds to consider for both matchups. Experts are highlighting standout picks, from Evan Mobley‘s assists to Christian Braun‘s ability to fill the stat sheet defensively. With several sportsbooks offering competitive lines, and the SportsLine Projection Model running 10,000 simulations per matchup, there’s a wealth of sharp betting options to sift through before tip-off.
The night’s action begins at 7:30 p.m. ET with the Pacers vs Cavaliers, followed by Thunder vs Nuggets tipping off at 10 p.m. ET. Between injury updates, performance trends, and expert models, the betting landscape for these playoffs is shifting quickly. Here’s a breakdown of the most valuable player props and best bets for Friday’s games, including analysis, odds, and expert picks.
Pacers vs Cavaliers: Key Player Props and Odds
The Pacers pulled off a stunning feat by taking a 2-0 lead away from the top-seeded Cavaliers before heading back home for Game 3. Few predicted Indiana would gain such momentum. As the series shifts to Gainbridge Fieldhouse, the pressure lands squarely on Cleveland to stop the slide. Current odds favor a bounce back from the Cavs, reflecting sharp modeling and betting action on potential regression for Indiana’s scorers and tighter defense from Cleveland.
Key prop markets for this game include Evan Mobley‘s assist totals, which are being closely watched after he missed Game 2 due to injury. Both Mobley’s health and his ability to facilitate will be pivotal, as Cleveland could alter their game plan to leverage his passing against Indiana’s defense. Andrew Nembhard’s points, assists, and rebounds prop is also getting attention – he’s riding a hot streak but faces a stiffer test against an urgent Cavs squad.
Bettors are also evaluating lines for Tyrese Haliburton, Donovan Mitchell, and Jarrett Allen, but the sharpest prop values for Friday are clustered around Mobley and Nembhard. BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook are currently offering some of the most competitive odds, maximizing potential returns for timely wagers ahead of tip-off.
Recent betting trends show a surge in action on Indiana’s supporting cast, with prop totals shaded upward after two impressive games. Meanwhile, skepticism around Cleveland’s scoring depth is reflected in some defensive props and under totals, reinforcing the narrative that adjustments are coming for Game 3.
Thunder vs Nuggets: Best Bets for Game 3
The Oklahoma City Thunder leveled their series with the Denver Nuggets in dramatic fashion, bouncing back from a Game 1 loss with a dominant 43-point win in Game 2. Now, with the series shifting back to Denver, Game 3 has the attention of bettors hunting for value in both team and player prop markets.
Denver’s strong home record makes them slight favorites, but the performance gap from Game 2 is sharpening focus on bounce-back candidates. Nikola Jokic‘s role will be crucial, as will the Thunder’s ability to keep up a blistering offensive pace. Props tied to Jokic’s triple-double odds (+110 at DraftKings) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s point total (set at 32.5) are especially popular. SGA has scored at least 33 in both games so far and is clearly the Thunder’s engine.
Attention is also fixed on Christian Braun, whose defensive prop for blocks and steals (set at 1.5) is available at plus money. Despite a recent streak of unders, experts see potential for an uptick as coaches push for tighter rotations and more aggressive defense at home – especially for players like Braun who have shown post-season stamina.
Nuggets fans will also be watching Jamal Murray’s prop totals after a quieter series start, while Thunder supporters look to see if rookie Chet Holmgren can keep affecting both ends of the court. Across the board, sportsbook odds are fluctuating throughout the day, reflecting evolving injury reports and betting action as tip-off approaches.
The atmosphere in Denver promises to be intense. The ability of home teams to control pace and benefit from friendly officiating (as experts point out) may swing a handful of closely priced prop outcomes, offering savvy bettors some hidden value in the Friday night slate.
Evan Mobley Assist Prop: Injury Impact and Value Analysis
Evan Mobley is the prop focus for Cleveland vs Indiana, with his assist line set at 2.5 (odds: -105 at BetMGM). Mobley averages 3.1 assists per game on the season, but the real wrinkle is his health status – after missing Game 2 with an ankle injury, Mobley is listed as questionable for Friday. His potential return is critical not only for Cleveland’s overall performance, but also for the many that are evaluating his passing game in prop markets.
The SportsLine Projection Model projects Mobley right around 2.9 assists for Game 3. If Mobley’s mobility is noticeably limited, he may defer more as a facilitator rather than attacking the rim, potentially increasing his assist opportunities. This prop stands out because the number is set noticeably lower for road games (his average is 2.7 away from home, but 3.4 at home), yet sharp bettors see the “due” profile – prior to a recent run of unders, Mobley hit the over in seven straight and was 16-5 (over) since late February.
With the Cavs looking to avoid a dreaded 3-0 deficit, expect Mobley to play if at all possible. The odds of -105 at BetMGM offer a little more value than at other books, where the line has moved closer to even money or -110. For anyone tracking props as part of a larger parlay or just looking for standalone value, Mobley’s assists over is on the radar.
Andrew Nembhard Points + Assists + Rebounds: Betting Trends and Projections
Andrew Nembhard’s PRA (points, rebounds, assists) prop sits at 22.5 for Friday, with odds at -110 at Caesars Sportsbook. This is an interesting spot. Although Nembhard has exceeded this total in the first two games of the series, most models and experts are leaning under for Game 3. The reason: Indiana has overperformed expectations so far, and with Cleveland due for regression, Nembhard’s heavy minutes and high usage may take a hit.
Historically, Nembhard’s PRA drops when the Pacers are home underdogs – he’s gone under this total in four of his last five home games in that setting, averaging just 16.4 PRA. He also struggled to go over this line against Cleveland in the regular season, with no more than 25 PRA in four meetings. That history makes this under a sharp choice among prop pickers Friday night.
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Sharp bettors and model projections see a reversion to the mean in Game 3, expecting Cleveland’s defense to tighten up against secondary scoring and playmakers. With the odds on this particular under favorable at Caesars, those looking to fade public momentum might want to move quickly before the line shifts closer to tip-off.
If Indiana continues their hot streak and Nembhard keeps producing, this bet could get dicey quick. Still, based on trends, he appears to be a sell-high candidate after the Pacers’ impressive road start to the series.
Christian Braun Blocks + Steals: Defensive Impact and Buy-Low Value
Few prop markets are as intriguing for Game 3 in Denver as Christian Braun’s blocks plus steals, set at 1.5. Despite going under in four straight games, observers see this as a classic buy-low situation at plus-money (+100). Braun’s regular-season average is 1.6 defensive stocks, and in the earlier playoff rounds, he hit this number in four of his first five games.
The context for Braun’s recent under trend? Fewer minutes in lopsided results, such as only 26 minutes played in a blowout. But when the games have been competitive, Braun consistently sees 37+ minutes and thrives on defensive activity, especially in front of a Denver crowd that energizes hustle plays.
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Experts also point to the postseason dynamic: home teams with championship pedigree often get away with more physical defense, as referees give veterans more leeway. This subtle “home whistle” opens the door for players like Braun to rack up extra defensive stats that may have been called fouls in the regular season.
Bettors willing to back the plus odds here are betting on a return to form for Braun as Denver leans on bigger minutes and playoff experience to swing the momentum back in their favor.
Nikola Jokic Prop Bets: Triple-Double Odds and Recent Playoff Form
Nikola Jokic remains one of the top targets for player props each night, and Friday is no different. The reigning MVP averaged a triple-double during the regular season and maintained those incredible numbers across the first round against the Clippers. For Game 3 against the Thunder, his triple-double odds are posted at +110 on DraftKings, reflecting both recent trends and public expectations.
Through two games against Oklahoma City, Jokic has yet to notch a triple-double, falling just short. Betting markets appear torn between his playoff consistency and the Thunder’s new-look defense that is forcing Jokic to adapt. Denver will be counting on Jokic’s playmaking to spark a bounce-back after a tough Game 2 loss, and history shows he excels in high-leverage home playoff games.
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With the Nuggets desperate to regain control of the series, expect increased touches and passing chances for Jokic, especially as he works to free up shooters and punish mismatch coverage. Bettors targeting triple-double props or even pivoting to his individual rebounds or assists markets will find a lot of volume-driven upside for Friday’s matchup.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Scoring Prop: Thunder’s Go-To Option
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, or SGA as he’s known to fans, is Oklahoma City’s undisputed leader on offense. His scoring prop line for Game 3 sits at 32.5, and he’s cleared 33 points in both playoff games against Denver so far. SGA’s versatility makes him a dangerous prop target – the Nuggets struggled to contain his driving ability and mid-range game, leading to substantial over bets on his point total early in this series.
Bettors analyzing this market note that while Denver’s defense will try to adjust, SGA’s scoring load is unlikely to dip unless the Thunder offense stalls out completely. His usage and shot volume are among the highest in the league during the postseason, and every key possession flows through him.
Sharp props pickers are looking for nuance in how Denver might double SGA or trap him late, perhaps steering some value toward his combined points + assists totals or even defensive props. For now, though, his scoring over has been a popular and profitable angle as OKC tries to steal another game on the road.
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Comparing Sportsbooks: Where to Find the Best NBA Prop Odds
The NBA playoff prop betting market is highly competitive, with odds and lines moving quickly across top platforms like DraftKings, BetMGM, and Caesars. For Friday’s slate, most sharp action is chasing even fractional improvements to expected value, making line shopping essential for maximizing returns.
For Mobley’s assists over, BetMGM leads the way at -105, making it more appealing than the standard -110. Caesars has the edge for Nembhard’s under PRA at -110, while DraftKings is offering plus odds on Jokic’s triple-double. These small differences add up, and the most successful bettors are checking every major app before locking in picks.
- DraftKings: Best value for Jokic triple-double prop (+110)
- BetMGM: Top price for Mobley assists over (-105)
- Caesars: Leading odds for Nembhard PRA under (-110)
Some sites are also offering enhanced boosts or parlay insurance, especially around marquee matchups. As lines can move with news or betting volume, acting early or setting alerts can help secure the best odds before they shift close to game time.
The SportsLine Projection Model: How Data Drives NBA Prop Picks
The SportsLine Projection Model has become a go-to source for bettors seeking analytical edges. This model simulates each NBA game 10,000 times, factoring in player health, matchup trends, recent performance, and betting market movement to generate projected performance for every player and team.
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It’s known for uncovering value on overlooked or mispriced props – like identifying Mobley’s assist potential even with an injury cloud, or finding under value on Nembhard based on situational history. The model’s track record backs it up: over the past six-plus seasons, it’s returned well over $10,000 for $100 bettors following its top-rated picks.
Those using the model as part of their strategy are often looking for variance between the simulation output and public betting consensus, giving them an edge in finding +EV (expected value) situations night after night. The model’s recommendations often move the markets themselves, so using them early can mean better payouts.
Expert Opinions: Insights from Stephen Oh, Bruce Marshall, and Mike Barner
Several prominent betting experts have weighed in on Friday’s playoff slate, offering analysis and recommended props based on their process. Stephen Oh, a data scientist behind the SportsLine Model, points to Mobley’s assist prop as a value based on both stats and game context. Oh also notes Braun is prime for a bounce-back defensive performance – sometimes player trends lag reality, creating rare value windows.
Bruce Marshall is another must-follow voice. He has posted a 119-90-1 record (+1994 units) on NBA picks, and he already has a strong play lined up for Friday’s games, which is available to SportsLine members. Marshall’s insight blends trends, matchup analysis, and market timing.
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Mike Barner specializes in props, particularly unders, and has an impressive 158-107 run (+3263 units) on his latest NBA picks. His approach relies on historical matchup stats and finding inefficiencies in how books price props after unexpected games or injuries shake up rotations. You can see his Friday selections on the SportsLine experts page.
The consensus among these top experts is that playoff prop markets are most vulnerable just after news breaks and early in the day – when books may react slowly to injury updates or lineup changes, creating opportunities for savvy picks before the close.
